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Old 30-01-2012, 18:03   #76
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Re: A View On International Travel

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What does that mean, when the overall violent crime rate is like 50% less in Montana, the murder rate is double in New York, but the "crime index" is greater in Montana?
people are bad shots in Montana, maybe

dave ( even more thread drift, sorry)
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Old 30-01-2012, 19:02   #77
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Re: A View On International Travel

I was responding to someone who wrote that the crime rate (all crimes) in Montana was lower than in New York State. It isn't. I prefer to argue with facts. Violent crime is higher in New York state than Montana as a whole, but it is still 22nd down the list in the nation in that regard. The most dangerous states for violent crime are in the south. Look it up. If you took New York City out of it the state as a whole would be a lot lower, and remember NY State has 20 times the population of Montana. The point was being made by the OP that people hear something about someplace and then misinterpret the level of crime. Someone says something on here and everyone starts jumping to conclusions that it is dangerous to go here or there, even in the USA. I have sailed to Panama, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and Colombia, statistically very dangerous countries. Did it with my wife and two young kids. No problems.
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Old 30-01-2012, 19:10   #78
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Statistics.... dammed Statistics....
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Old 30-01-2012, 19:14   #79
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Re: A View On International Travel

naw... it's 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'
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Old 31-01-2012, 04:54   #80
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You just gotta be selective with your sources.
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Old 31-01-2012, 05:13   #81
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pirate Re: A View On International Travel

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naw... it's 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'
Sara... 1st 2 are fine... and often funny...
But Statistic's are the merely the refuge of the desk jockey....
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Old 31-01-2012, 11:05   #82
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Re: A View On International Travel

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naw... it's 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'
Maybe to get back on topic, I have to admit that I don't travel to places where the perceived crime is fairly high, but I also tend to think about it in terms of my own risk. I don't believe that I'm a future gunshot victim in any place in the US because I'm not a gang member, don't associate with gang members and generally don't hang out in places where gang members hang out. I might be mistaken, but I think those are pretty much the three biggest risk factors for such crime. Outside the US, and especially in so-called developing countries, I'm not sure those apply as directly. I carry more cash on me at most times than the average citizen of a number of countries makes in a month (or whatever made up statistic suits us) and certainly while traveling that amount is greatly increased. I well imagine that I'm a much greater target of a mugging/robbery when in such a place. Maybe I'm wrong?

But, question? I didn't see anything other than prose in that article you posted - do people really cancel vacations to other Mexican cities when a notable crime occurs elsewhere? That was his point, of course, but I didn't see any kind of statistical reference.
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Old 31-01-2012, 11:26   #83
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Re: A View On International Travel

I think the important message here is that the *News* is not a good guide of what is safe or not safe.

I live in San Francisco. It's a big city and we have crime here (who doesn't?) But it isn't known as a big crime spot as far as cities go. Lots of folk travel here from around the world. In general I think most people view San Francisco as a *safe* destination.

Last week a young friend of mine waiting at a bus stop was jumped by a group of gangbangers. His mother, my dear friend, was appalled that her son had been caught up in such violence. She is from Ohio, and while she has been a city dweller for many years, and raised her son here, she still has pretty rural roots. I pointed out to her that while he had not been wearing gang colours, his all black apparel, oversized jeans sans belt, huge T and hoodie with a baseball cap, made him *LOOK* like he should be of interest to the gang members. That while she is about as white as it is possible to be (talk about investing into the sunscreen industry) her son, who was adopted from Guatemala, does not. Hence the hassle and subsequent scare.

Does that make me feel less safe? Nope. Does that make San Francisco less safe? Nope. Could that be spun by the press to scaere people coming to visit the City? Yep.

It reminded me of a dive master's advice about scuba-diving around the Farallon Islands. His suggestion? Don't dress up like shark's favorite food and go swim where the sharks hang out.

Don't dress up like a seal and go swimming with sharks. Where ever you are.
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Old 31-01-2012, 16:46   #84
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Re: A View On International Travel

I total agree with posts 1, 2 3, 82, 83.
So what have i learnt (which is my goal in reading) from this thread ....
Dont have any thing to do with any boat having an american flag esp if it also has a CF bungee. Why, not because the fool on board may have a gun which he is more likely to shoot himself with than me but because he is likely to quote meaningless stats without any understand.
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Old 31-01-2012, 16:59   #85
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Re: A View On International Travel

Statistics aren't meaningless if they are based on facts and used with intelligence. It isn't the statistic that is at fault (assuming it is accurate), but how it is used.
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Old 31-01-2012, 17:44   #86
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Re: A View On International Travel

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Statistics aren't meaningless if they are based on facts and used with intelligence. It isn't the statistic that is at fault (assuming it is accurate), but how it is used.
you are right, and yes i do understand stats perhaps better than the "average" and that includes mean mode and medium . What i was hinting at is that is a persons perception of what a place or cultural group can be influence by a newspaper article, what perception would an outsider develop as a result of reading this thread.

BTW i have had american crew and i have american relatives
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