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Old 09-04-2011, 17:17   #1
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A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

It appears that this year may see an increase in Hurricane activity.more

“Colorado State University researchers predicted that the 2011 hurricane season will have significantly more activity than average. They predict 9 hurricanes (compared to an average of 5.9) and 16 named storms (compared to an average of 9.6). The probability for one major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) tracking into the Caribbean is 61 percent, compared to an average probability of 42 percent. The probability for a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast is 47 percent, compared to an average of 30 percent.” Quote from the Energy Information Administration.

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Old 10-04-2011, 06:34   #2
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

All the locals here in Key West say they have that feeling in their bones that this is going to be a bad year for storms. Mostly they say it's been too quiet for the last few years and we are due. Me, I'm out of here and heading South.
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Old 10-04-2011, 06:45   #3
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

Oh that's not good news for those in the Carib and SE USA.

Whilst we don't get hurricanes this side of the pond, when they finally break up over the N Atlantic they appear a week later in N Europe as low pressure systems, so lots of windy squalls.

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Old 10-04-2011, 06:52   #4
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While it is nice to read predictions of hurricane seasons, living on the coast in Florida there is a simple rule I follow.

A bad hurricane season is when my area gets hit with a storm. A good season is when the storms go somewhere else...

Nothin' personal to my neighbors in the Keys, gulf coast or up in the Carolinas....
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Old 10-04-2011, 07:25   #5
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

Any time they go more than 10 yrs without a real storm down here, locals start predicting bad season.

Cat 1 or 2 is just a good blow.
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Old 10-04-2011, 07:30   #6
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

As far as I remember, at least three big research centers predicted a horrible season last year. As far as I remember, they turned out to be way off in their predictions.

What is it, they get extra grants for extra active season or something?

I think such predictions are well grounded, educated wild guesses.

b.
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Old 10-04-2011, 07:55   #7
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

The year before last, they were predicting a substantially above normal year and there were, as I remember, almost no hurricanes. Sooner or later they will be right but no one will believe it. Will stay with the averages and keep out of the middle of the North Atlantic with nowhere to run during hurricane season.
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Old 10-04-2011, 07:58   #8
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

I was just reading an article on www.wunderground.com which discusses the current forecast. Apparently everyone in the business recognizes that forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season in April is an exercise worth doing, but at present has little or nothing to offer in the way of accuracy.

An excerpt...
Quote:
How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future...

...
For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
The forecast that comes out in June has been considerably more accurate.
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:00   #9
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn Dreams View Post
Any time they go more than 10 yrs without a real storm down here, locals start predicting bad season.

Cat 1 or 2 is just a good blow.
Last few years have been benign in KW....Wilma was not THAT long ago!
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:17   #10
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

I don't remember Wil,a hitting the Key's.

Haven't boarded up the house since the 70's.
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:32   #11
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

I don't pay any attention to the predictions until tropical depressions start forming off of the west coast of Africa. They predict "unusually active hurricane seasons" every year. I'm not buying into the hype (again).
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:36   #12
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn Dreams View Post
I don't remember Wilma hitting the Key's ...
Effects of Hurricane Wilma in Florida
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects...lma_in_Florida

Hurricane Wilma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 10-04-2011, 09:36   #13
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
As far as I remember, at least three big research centers predicted a horrible season last year. As far as I remember, they turned out to be way off in their predictions.

What is it, they get extra grants for extra active season or something?

I think such predictions are well grounded, educated wild guesses.

b.
All of the hurricanes that ocurred last year went North before reaching landfall.
There are so many variables that influance the formation and direction of a hurricane that 8 different computer models of weather patterns offen disagree.
Now that IBM has a new super-computer, weather in the Indian Ocean is used in the equation. Whether it is vaild data or a programmers folly is debatable.
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Old 10-04-2011, 09:58   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn Dreams

Cat 1 or 2 is just a good blow.
Like I said it depends if it hits you or not.... I saw Wilma's eye go over me. It took a week to normalize things. They had depots to give out free ice It took 30 days until all power was restored. That is more than a good blow!

Hey- predicting an active season is like betting red in roulette- sooner or later you will be right.
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Old 10-04-2011, 10:11   #15
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Re: A Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season This Year

I have a probably irrational suspicion of taking hurricane forecasts from a U.S. state in which hurricanes never happen.

For the "fringe" weather fans, the Sun has only recently started to reestablish sunspots after a few years of unexpected quiet. There are some who suggest that this particular solar cycle plays a greater role in pushing Earth's climatic tendencies in one direction or another than even "greenhouse gases".
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